Indonesia central bank sees 2023 avg rupiah exchange rate at 14,400-14,800/$

JAKARTA : Indonesia’s central bank predicts the rupiah will weaken slightly against the U.S. dollar next year, even as the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates several times through to 2023, its governor said on Tuesday.

Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah’s exchange rate is seen averaging at a range of 14,400 to 14,800 a dollar in 2023, compared with Bank Indonesia’s (BI) expectation for the currency to trade on average at 14,300 to 14,700 in 2022.

The governor also gave a 2023 gross domestic product growth projection of 4.7-5.5 per cent, higher than BI’s outlook of 4.5-5.3 per cent for 2022.

The rupiah traded at 14,580 a dollar at Tuesday’s market close and is down about 2.3 per cent so far this year, a depreciation rate that Warjiyo said was better than some other emerging markets.

“Export earnings have been able to support the stability of the exchange rate. Foreign currency supply is pretty good,” he told a hearing with parliament’s budget committee that discussed economic outlook for 2023.

Warjiyo said next year’s exchange rate outlook “is supported by good fundamentals and stabilisation measures that will be conducted continually by Bank Indonesia.”

Resource-rich Indonesia has been enjoying an export boom since last year, amid an rise in commodity prices.

BI expects Indonesia’s current account deficit to widen next year to 1.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent of GDP, from 2022’s deficit prediction of 0.5 per cent to 1.3 per cent, Warjiyo said.

However, the governor warned of “unfriendly global economic conditions”, citing the war in Ukraine and a projected increase in the U.S. Fed Funds Rate to 3.25 per cent by 2023.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati earlier this month told parliament she predicted government bond yields would rise significantly next year, giving a range of 7.34 per cent to 9.16 per cent for the benchmark 10-year tenure, due to potential capital outflows linked to global monetary tightening.