© Bloomberg. Janet Yellen speaks at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing’s Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth, Texas, on Dec. 8.
(Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she still anticipates that the US economy will avoid a recession, despite widespread forecasts by analysts and investors for another downturn.
As to “whether or not we can avoid a recession, I believe the answer is yes,” Yellen told reporters during a visit to Fort Worth, Texas. She highlighted that US payrolls so far have avoided declines.
“Without seeing significant net nationwide layoffs, I believe we’re on the right track in terms of lowering inflation and recessions not inevitable,” she said.
Most economists see the US falling into a recession next year, according to a Bloomberg survey last month. That’s after the steepest increases in the Federal Reserve’s key interest rates since the early 1980s.
“Supply-chain bottlenecks are clearly beginning to ease. That’s helpful” with respect to inflation, Yellen also said.
In the labor market, “as businesses tone down their expectations for growth and are slightly diminishing their hiring plans, quits have declined a little bit,” the Treasury chief noted.